With this forecast, the global economy is moving away from the stagflation scenario.

InSur: The new report argues that there are several factors driving this positive evolution: the most relevant is justified by China's economy, which marked a shift from a zero tolerance policy to a new approach of openness, with policies that boost its growth and the recovery of its supply chain to the rest of the world.

The United States, which managed to keep unemployment below 4%. And several European countries, where companies managed to cushion the impact of energy prices and trade sanctions due to the war in Ukraine, have already shown themselves to be more resilient than expected to stagflationary pressures.

Inflation: However, Atradius warns that elevated inflation still keeps the economy on alert for both 2023 and 2024. Disparate dynamics are revealed in the different moods of industries: the service sector is the most improving, while the industrial sector still shows a less positive evolution due to rising energy and financial costs.

In this context, and after the pandemic and its consequences, the study maintains that one of the most determining factors for future growth will be the end of the war in Ukraine, still very uncertain, and explains that tensions between Russia and the European Union, the United States and the United Kingdom are expected to continue beyond a possible ceasefire, with upward pressure on the prices of raw materials and foodstuffs.

Translated by: A.M