Thursday, 09 February 2023 14:56

Moody's maintains El Salvador's rating at 'Caa3' but upgrades it to stable

Written by Evelyn Alas

Ratings agency Moody's has upgraded El Salvador's outlook from negative to stable, reflecting the country's reduced risk of defaulting on its financial obligations after completing two early bond purchase transactions in 2022 and the recent payment of an US$800 million (€745 million) international bond.

Nevertheless, Moody's has maintained unchanged its 'Caa3' rating for El Salvador, one of the lowest on its scale.

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Specifically, this low credit rating is due, as they explained, to factors that still weigh heavily on the country's credit quality, such as the "constant and high" need for financing, the lack of a "credible" fiscal framework and financing, and the difficulty in accessing international capital markets.

On the lack of a credible fiscal framework, Moody's argued that the lack of a medium-term plan by government authorities undermines the predictability of the country's economic policy and reduces investor confidence in the country.

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A significant reduction in the fiscal deficit or a much lower reliance on short-term debt that consequently leads to an improvement in the country's liquidity situation could lead to a credit rating upgrade by Moody's.

Conversely, a resurgence of liquidity pressures or an increase in the risk of a debt default would lead to a downgrade of the rating to 'Caa3'.

 

Translated by: A.M