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It should be noted that the movements of the last few days are not based on significant supply and demand factors, but on external factors.
Determining factors for the price movement are: after a volatile day, the dollar recovered in relation to the colombian peso and the brazilian real by +2.4% and +1.7%, respectively. This represented a bearish factor for Arabica prices, as it motivates coffee negotiations of local exporters.
There is also a spillover effect from the decline in commodity prices, including oil.
The Rabobank finance company cut its projection of a global coffee supply surplus for the year 2023/24 to 1.6 million 60 kg bags. Last november, the Dutch bank estimated an imbalance of up to 4.0 million bags, due to higher global production.
Starbucks published this week that demand for its product in China reported a 29% drop in the last quarter of 2022 as a result of the quarantines and restrictions that affected some of the main cities in the Asian country during that period.