Wednesday, 16 August 2023 20:51

El Salvador's country risk drops an average of 11 points between may and july 2023

Written by Evelyn Alas

According to the Country Situation 2023 report by the Universidad Francisco Gavidia (UFG),El Salvador has shown a drop of 11 points in its Country Risk rating in Latin America, that is, it fell from 13.28 points in may 2023 to 9.35 points as of july 31, 2023.

This means that salvadoran authorities made important global bond redemptions at the beginning of the year, corresponding to US$800 million in Eurobonds maturing in january 2023, as well as another US$800 million for the year 2025.

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What has contributed to this improvement is both tax collection and the improvement of fiscal accounts in general.

The JP Morgan agency recently explained that data have been generally optimistic in recent months in El Salvador, showing disinflation, positive behavior of the fiscal accounts and, more recently, growing signs of acceleration in the economy.

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This week's may average Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 1.8%, putting the economy on track for annual growth of close to 9% quarter-over-quarter at 20% after a solid 3.4% in the first quarter.

The agency explains that they are revising the growth forecast for the year to 3.9% y/y from just under 2.5%.

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In addition, Fitch Ratings announced in its latest report the improvement in El Salvador's credit rating, improving three notches from CC to CCC+, due to the advances in the debt management strategy, the increase in tax collection and the boost to the national economy.

EMBI (Emerging Markets Bonds Index) is the difference in interest rates paid on dollar-denominated bonds issued by developing countries compared to U.S. Treasury Bonds, which are considered "free" of risk. It is the main indicator of country risk.

 

Translated by: A.M