Food prices are forecast to fall by 8% in 2023, the second highest since 1975. In addition, as of february this year, annual food price inflation stands at 20% worldwide, the highest in two decades.

However, it is estimated that the fall in prices will not bring much relief to the nearly 350 million people around the world who suffer from food insecurity.

Overall, this year, commodity prices are expected to decrease by 21% compared to last year.

Energy prices are projected to fall by 26%, with crude oil prices averaging US$84 a barrel, down 16% from the 2022 average.

Likewise, natural gas prices in Europe and the United States will halve between 2022 and 2023, while coal prices will fall by 42% in 2023. Likewise, fertilizer prices are projected to fall by 37%, representing the largest annual decline since 1974.

However, they still remain close to their last peak seen during the 2008-09 food crisis.

One of the conclusions of the study is that futures prices, which are widely used to project prices, tend to generate significant errors in the projections.

Translated by: A.M