The analysis of the entity points out that this projection is due to the economic aid programs to individuals, promoted by the US Government, this with the delivery of three checks from march 2020 to april 2021, so the reduction of the Hispanic unemployment rate in the United States and the economic difficulties experienced by families in El Salvador.

In the case of El Salvador, the movements have been more drastic. In the second quarter of 2020 the drop was 16.5% and the first and second quarters of 2021 grew (30.4%9) and (61.4%). As of the first semester of 2021, remittances have grown 45.3%, reaching US$3,658.5 million.

The FUSADES analysis indicates that 96.4% of family remittances entering the country come from the United States, and the average cost of sending remittances to El Salvador, according to World Bank (WB) figures, is 2.8%, the result of a downward trend in recent years, being the lowest in Central America.

The income from family remittances to El Salvador represents a support for households, stimulates consumption, covering basic needs, unforeseen events, and stimulates activities in various economic sectors of the country; it also stimulates the financing of imports and the deficit of the Current Account of the Balance of Payments.

Between january and june 2021, remittances registered a record increase of US$1.14 billion (45.3%), compared to the same period in 2020.

The extraordinary increase perceived in remittances is related to the policies of direct transfers to households in the United States through the delivery of economic impact payments.

In terms of average forecast, remittances are estimated to total US$7.246 billion in 2021, implying an annual growth rate of 22.2%, similar to that recorded during the 2001 earthquake. By 2022, remittances could increase, but at a lower rate.

According to the exercise, remittances would total approximately US$7,497.5 million in 2022, which would imply a predicted growth rate of 3.4%, similar to that recorded in the pre-pandemic period.

Likewise, the statistical and econometric model and the annual forecast infer values for 2021 between US$7,166 million and US$7,328.5 million; and for 2022, between US$7,213 million and US$7,793.1 million.