In addition, the current context of the conflict in Ukraine has exacerbated inflationary problems, increased volatility and financial costs, an average growth of 1.8% is expected for the region.

The economies of South America will grow by 1.5%, those of Central America plus Mexico by 2.3%, while those of the Caribbean will grow by 4.7% (excluding Guyana).

According to ECLAC, world trade dynamics are also expected to be negatively affected by the conflict, which would lead to a decrease in external demand from Latin America and the Caribbean. The region's main trading partners - the United States (US), China and the European Union (EU) - will see lower growth rates than expected prior to the conflict. In the case of the U.S., growth would be 2.8% (1.2 percentage points below pre-conflict projections).

For China, growth is projected at 5% (0.7 percentage points lower than preconflict) and for the EU, growth is expected at 2.8% (1.4 percentage points lower than preconflict).

The war in Ukraine also triggered an increase in commodity prices, mainly for hydrocarbons, some metals, foodstuffs, and fertilizers. This price increase comes on top of the cost increases observed due to disruptions in supply chains and exacerbated shipping disruptions.

These increases have resulted in a boost to global inflation, which in some countries has reached record highs in 2022. Given the persistence and increase in inflation, further interest rate hikes are expected in developed countries.